Sultan’s Chance at Presidential Seat

Senin, 24 November 2008 - 23:25 WIB

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VIVAnews – Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X appeared on the national political stage during the 1998 reformation in Indonesia. The Sultan met with Amien Rais, Akbar Tanjung and Megawati Soekarnoputri in Ciganjur to discuss about the crisis in Indonesia. Soeharto was toppled down, and so was BJ Habibie. Megawati became Vice President, Amien Rais became Chairman of People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), and Akbar Tandjung became Chairman of House of Representatives. The Sultan went back to his palace in Yogyakarta.

The Sultan has been a national figure, even if he is still less popular than Megawati or Wiranto in terms of presidential candidacy. In a poll conducted by the National Survey Agency (LSN) in May 2008, Sultan was only at the ninth position when it comes to national figures recognized by the public, i.e. 51.1 percent of total responders. Megawati led the list, followed consecutively by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Abdurrahman Wahid, Jusuf Kalla, Amien Rais, Wiranto, Akbar Tanjung, Sutiyoso, and then the Sultan. On the 10th and 11th position were Prabowo Subianto and Hidayat Nur Wahid. Showing the respondents his picture did not change his position at number 9.

However, when the question was altered into who would be the most appropriate among those eleven figures to become the next president, Sultan gained fourth position. Yudhoyono was on the top list supported by 61.6 percent of respondents, followed by Megawati Soekarnoputri and Wiranto. 46.2 percent of respondents saw that Sultan would be the proper president for the 2009-2014 term. Only 25.4 percent deemed the Sultan unsuitable as President. Meanwhile, Megawati was deemed by 30.7 percent of respondents to be unsuitable as president, and Wiranto by 26.1 percent of respondents.

With regard to electability, according to the LSN the Sultan was again in third position. This time, after Megawati and Yudhoyono. Megawati was supported by 16.7 percent of respondents, Yudhoyono 16.4 percent while Sultan 6.9 percent. The Sultan beat other prominent figures like Hidayat Nur Wahid, Wiranto, Jusuf Kalla, Amien Rais, Abdurrahman Wahid, Prabowo, Sutiyoso and Akbar Tanjung. However, the Indonesian Survey Agency (LSI) in September 2008 showed that when Sultan was pitched against 27 figures, he was only supported by six percent of responders to become the next president. The Sultan was under Yudhoyono, Megawati, Wiranto and Prabowo when responders were asked “If the presidential election were held today, which one amongst these who would you choose?” Yudhoyono gained 32 percent, Megawati 24 percent, Wiranto six percent and Prabowo five percent. However, Sultan was still above Amien Rais, Hidayat Nur Wahid, Jusuf Kalla and Akbar Tanjung.

The survey of the Indonesian Research and Development Institute (IRDI) held in July 2008 showed that Sultan was one out of six potential figures to become the next Indonesian president. Five other figures include Yudhoyono, Megawati, Kalla, Wiranto and Hidayat Nur Wahid. In Java and Bali, Sultan was supported by 7.17 percent of responders (fifth position); in Sumatra, 5.52 percent (fifth position); and other regions, 1.91 percent (sixth position). Yudhoyono was the strongest candidate in Sumatra because he was supported by 48.5 percent of respondents, while Megawati with only 23.5 percent of respondents. Megawati has a strong basis in Java with 50 percent of supporters, beating Yudhoyono (23.82 percent). But this survey emphasized that Sultan was the strongest figure from Functional Group (Golkar) Party because he defeated Kalla in Sumatra as well as Java and Bali. Outside the three regions, Kalla was a strong candidate. However, he was not powerful enough to outdo Megawati and Yudhoyono.

Therefore, when the figures that had nominated for the presidential seat in the 2004 elections are excluded, Sultan is at the top position as a figure having the highest electability rate according to the LSN survey. Without Megawati, Yudhoyono, Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais and Wiranto, the Sultan was chosen by 14.8 percent of responders, leaving far behind Hidayat Nur Wahid, Prabowo Subianto, Akbar Tandjung and Yusril Ihza Mahendra. The closest competitor is Hidayat Nur Wahid who gained 8.8 percent of the votes.

When the Sultan's competitors were limited to Wiranto, Prabowo and Kalla, there is tight rivalry. The Indonesian Survey Agency (LSI), in a periodically organized survey, found that Sultan had been in the top position in April 2008. The Sultan was supported by seven percent responders; Wiranto, six percent; Jusuf Kalla and Prabowo, two percent. In June 2008, the results changed. Wiranto went to the top position with nine percent of votes; Sultan was second with five percent of votes; Prabowo outran Kalla with three percent of votes. In September 2008, Sultan fell to third position with three percent of the votes. Wiranto gained first position with six percent, and Prabowo was second with five percent of the votes. Kalla’s position was below Sultan’s. Yet, LSI concluded that as Yudhoyono and Megawati are still nominated in the 2009 elections, the vote disparity between Sultan, Wiranto and Prabowo was insignificant.

Because the LSN survey was done in May 2008, with the Sultan being part of Golkar, he was pitched against Prabowo Subianto, now chairing Head of Board of Trustees at the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). In the internal structure of Golkar Party, Sultan was in the top position as the most appropriate figure for the next Indonesian president with 41.8 percent of votes. Prabowo was in second position with 35.1 percent of votes, followed by Jusuf Kalla, Akbar Tandjung, Agung Laksono, Aburizal Bakrie, Surya Paloh, Muladi, Fadel Muhammad and Fahmi Idris.

21.9 percent of responders also believed that Sultan will improve the Indonesian economy. The Sultan was in second position after Megawati, who gained 26.5 percent of the votes. However, it is worth noting that only 3.5 percent of the respondents stated that the Sultan would worsen the economy, while another 28.1 percent of the respondents stated that the economy would remain the same. Meanwhile, 8.4 percent of the respondents feel that Megawati would worsen the economy and another 36.3 believed that the economy would remain the same.